研究报告 ResearchReport 1 Apr 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费品 3 月需求报告：春节红利消退，餐饮链修复放缓 As the Spring Festival Boost Fades, the Recovery of the Restaurant Industry is Slowing Down [Table_yemei1] Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | | | | | | 贵州茅台 | | | Outperform 古井贡酒 Outperform | | | | | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | | | 五粮液 | | | | Outperform 安琪酵母 Outperform | | | | | 五粮液 | | | | | Outperform 今世缘 ...

2026 年春糖反馈报告 春糖观感：产业参展热度整体下降，传统展会降温，新零售、新酒饮明显升温。 本届春糖参会酒企及参展人数进一步下降，头部酒企茅五缺席酒店展，中小品 牌成酒店展主力。同时企业普遍缩减在糖酒会期间的费用投入，转向更精准的 招商与消费者互动，糖酒会传统的招商功能持续减弱，行业营销模式向实效转 型。渠道商普遍持谨慎观望态度，代理新品意愿偏低。然而与传统展会/论坛降 温不同，今年新零售、新酒饮热度明显提升，美团歪马论坛场内外爆满，露酒 热度空前，汾酒竹叶青、古井贡神力酒等设单展，春糖首设养生酒专区。我们 认为传统业态的冷静与新业态的火热，背后是消费代际切换、需求转变的映射， 80/90/00 后成为酒水消费主力后，更关注产品力、悦己属性及购买便捷性。 春糖思考：2026 不仅是白酒周期筑底，更是新时代的开启 行业研究 白酒 2026 年 03 月 30 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 推荐（维持） 叩响酒业新时代 相对指数表现 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 食品饮料周报：糖酒会情绪平稳，关注业绩催化 ——食饮行业周报（2026 年 3 月第 4 期） 投资要点 36.50/5.38/5.23 亿元（-48.34%/-59.32%/-68.78%），由于酱酒&高端酒需 求偏弱，导致 25 年业绩承压。 大众品：餐供表现积极，业绩期催化明显。本周食饮板块中预加工/调味发 酵品居前，餐供涨幅居前或主因业绩催化（颐海关联方 H2 降幅显著收窄、 幅度超预期，H2 盈利端亮眼，26 年业绩有超预期可能；海天 Q4 小超预期， 分红超预期），叠加餐饮 beta 向上期权，餐供强α龙头或在回调后延续向 好表现。本周糖酒会反馈来看，传统经销商选品趋于谨慎，虽有一定库存压 力，但具强产品力、新渠道及健康化功能化的细分赛道仍强韧性。①零食、 饮料：健康、量贩、细分场景布局为方向；②乳品、速冻、调味品均呈现头 部品牌加速新品迭代与渠道布局，中小品牌聚焦细分场景与差异化定位突 围；头部企业引领趋势，细分赛道潜力释放。当前，除了餐供外，我们亦关 注功能饮料（强β）/ 啤酒（旺季即将到来预期积极）/零食（低基数+成本 红利+细分赛道β）/乳制品（b ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 食品饮料周报：糖酒会情绪平稳，关注业绩催化 ——食饮行业周报（2026 年 3 月第 4 期） 投资要点 36.50/5.38/5.23 亿元（-48.34%/-59.32%/-68.78%），由于酱酒&高端酒需 求偏弱，导致 25 年业绩承压。 大众品：餐供表现积极，业绩期催化明显。本周食饮板块中预加工/调味发 酵品居前，餐供涨幅居前或主因业绩催化（颐海关联方 H2 降幅显著收窄、 幅度超预期，H2 盈利端亮眼，26 年业绩有超预期可能；海天 Q4 小超预期， 分红超预期），叠加餐饮 beta 向上期权，餐供强α龙头或在回调后延续向 好表现。本周糖酒会反馈来看，传统经销商选品趋于谨慎，虽有一定库存压 力，但具强产品力、新渠道及健康化功能化的细分赛道仍强韧性。①零食、 饮料：健康、量贩、细分场景布局为方向；②乳品、速冻、调味品均呈现头 部品牌加速新品迭代与渠道布局，中小品牌聚焦细分场景与差异化定位突 围；头部企业引领趋势，细分赛道潜力释放。当前，除了餐供外，我们亦关 注功能饮料（强β）/ 啤酒（旺季即将到来预期积极）/零食（低基数+成本 红利+细分赛道β）/乳制品（b ...

行业月报 · 食品饮料行业 从"春糖"看复苏节奏与新消费趋势 —— 专题研究 2026 年 03 月 27 日 食品饮料行业 分析师 核心观点 | | | 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 研究助理：彭潇颖 ：pengxiaoying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 03 月 26 日 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/3/27 2025/4/27 2025/5/27 2025/6/27 2025/7/27 2025/8/27 2025/9/27 2025/10/27 2025/11/27 2025/12/27 2026/1/27 2026/2/27 SW食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1.【银河食饮】《十五五规划》点评报告_"十五五" 大力提振消费，战略性看好两大方向 2.【银河食饮】行业点评_政策持续深入提振消费， 关注食饮布局机会 3.【银河食饮】行业动态_春节动销仍具亮点，关注 节后补 ...

研究报告 Research Report 27 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费品 3 月价格报告：白酒批价跌多涨少，婴配粉外大众品均加大折扣 Wholesale prices of baijiu show more declines than gains, general consumer goods aside from infant formula are increasing discounts [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 来源：雪球 本篇就是我自己从白酒行业所经历的四次周期变化中总结出的我认为对认识当下的白酒，以及指导之后白酒投资有用的信息，分享出来，供大家讨 论学习。 一、白酒四轮周期主要白酒企业及行业指数估值、股价涨跌区间(见下表) 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 谦尔独行 | | 周期情况 | | | 股价最大涨跌幅 | 估值最大涨跌幅 | 估值范围 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌期 | 1998-2003 | 茅台 | -28% | -55% | 16-40 | | | | | | 五粮液 | -33% | -63% | 18-63 | | | | | | 洋河 | - | - | - | | | 第一轮周期 | | | 白酒指数 | -48% | -37% | 22-39 | | | | | | 茅台 | 2915% | 457% | 16-102 | | | | 上涨期 | 2004-2007 | 九根液 | 1214% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the CSI 300 index by more than 5% over the next six months [52]. Core Viewpoints - The darkest hour for the liquor industry has passed, and a sustained recovery is expected in 2026. The industry has moved past the excessive growth phase, with excess returns increasingly coming from price adjustments. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the price of Moutai show a high degree of correlation, suggesting a recovery in pricing dynamics [4][19]. - Moutai's reform focuses on direct consumer engagement and returning pricing to its consumption attributes. The introduction of the 1499 yuan Moutai is expected to stimulate consumer demand and help clear excess inventory in the market [4][34]. - The current valuation of the liquor sector is low, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.1X as of March 13, which is below the median of 25.2X and the average of 27.1X since 2012, indicating a strong downside support [41][50]. Summary by Sections Liquor Cycle Status - The liquor industry is at a turning point, with expectations of a recovery starting in 2026. The PPI has shown a narrowing decline since July 2025, indicating a potential bottoming out of the price cycle [4][19]. - Historical data shows that the liquor cycle is closely related to real estate investment trends, with previous downturns linked to economic slowdowns and policy changes [10][22]. Moutai Reform - Moutai is restructuring its product offerings into a pyramid model, focusing on different consumer segments. The marketing strategy includes a mix of self-sale, distribution, and consignment to enhance market reach [25][27]. - The pricing strategy for Moutai's products is being adjusted to reflect market conditions, with the 1499 yuan price point aimed at enhancing consumer access and clearing inventory [28][32]. Investment Value of Liquor - The liquor sector is characterized by low valuations and low expectations, with a significant portion of investment funds currently underweight in the sector. The dividend yield for high-end liquor companies ranges from 3.5% to 5.5%, providing support for stock prices [45][50]. - The report highlights three main investment lines: high-end liquor with stable demand, mid-range liquor benefiting from national expansion, and local market-focused liquor brands [50].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the white liquor sector is entering a demand off-season, suggesting a focus on undervalued stocks with strong alpha potential [1] - It highlights the gradual recovery of domestic demand, with expectations for a mild rebound in sales due to supportive government policies [2] - The report recommends monitoring the price trends of Feitian Moutai as a key indicator of industry health, with expectations for price declines to stabilize [3] Industry Overview - Post-Spring Festival, consumer demand for white liquor has decreased, leading to performance pressure in Q1, with anticipated year-on-year declines in earnings [2] - The report notes that major liquor companies are focusing on maintaining market order during the off-season, with some firms adjusting their delivery schedules to manage inventory and pricing health [2] - The government has reiterated the importance of expanding domestic demand, which is expected to support the sector's recovery [2] Company-Specific Insights Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai's reform efforts are showing positive results, with sales performance exceeding market expectations, particularly among younger consumers [2] - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in Q1 2026, with a focus on cultivating independent consumption scenarios through non-standard product sales [2] - The report projects Moutai's revenue for 2026 to be approximately 1758.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 870.9 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [19] Wuliangye - Wuliangye is expected to see a decline in revenue and net profit in 2026, with projections of 758.2 billion yuan in revenue and 256.6 billion yuan in net profit, reflecting a decrease of 15% and 19.4% respectively [20] - The company has improved its channel management during the Spring Festival, which has helped restore distributor confidence [20] - The report indicates that Wuliangye's price remains stable at around 810 yuan, with actual trading prices between 780-790 yuan [20] Luzhou Laojiao - Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao is performing steadily, with expectations for revenue and net profit to remain flat in 2026 at approximately 272.2 billion yuan and 113.4 billion yuan respectively [22] - The company plans to enhance its digital tools for management, aiming to maximize efficiency in its operations [22] - The report notes that the performance of lower-end products is improving, particularly in key consumption areas [22] Shanxi Fenjiu - Shanxi Fenjiu is projected to achieve revenue growth in the single digits for 2025 and 2026, with a focus on maintaining market order and enhancing channel profitability [24] - The company is expected to increase its operational pace post-Spring Festival, with a strategy to boost sales without overstocking [24] - The report highlights that Fenjiu's pricing for its Qinghua 20 product is expected to stabilize around 360-370 yuan [24]

证券代码：002304 证券简称：洋河股份 公告编号：2026-009 江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司 关于第一期核心骨干持股计划存续期即将届满的提示性公告 1 公司于 2021 年 9 月 10 日收到中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公 司出具的《证券过户登记确认书》。本持股计划的锁定期于 2023 年 9 月 10 日届满，本持股计划所持有的股份全部解锁，具体详见《关于第一期 核心骨干持股计划锁定期届满暨解锁条件成就的公告》（公告编号： 2023-022）。 公司于 2024 年 8 月 9 日召开第八届董事会第四次会议，审议通过了 《关于公司第一期核心骨干持股计划存续期展期的议案》，同意将本持 股计划存续期展期 12 个月，即存续期展期至 2025 年 9 月 10 日。公司于 2025 年 8 月 8 日召开第八届董事会第十二次会议，审议通过了《关于公 司第一期核心骨干持股计划存续期展期的议案》，同意将本持股计划存 续期展期 12 个月，即存续期展期至 2026 年 9 月 10 日。具体详见公司《关 于第一期核心骨干持股计划存续期展期的公告》（公告编号：2024-031、 2025-027）。截至本公告 ...