歌尔股份(002241):盈利能力持续向上 深度受益AI/AR眼镜产业发展

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its mid-year results for 2025, showing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating a mixed performance with potential for future growth driven by new product launches in the AI/AR sector [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 37.55 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.42 billion yuan, up 15.7% year-over-year. The non-recurring profit was 380 million yuan, with foreign exchange derivatives contributing approximately 420 million yuan [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 21.24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.3%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, up 12.1% year-over-year and 102.2% quarter-over-quarter [1]. Product Segments - In H1 2025, revenue from smart hardware, smart acoustic systems, and precision components was 20.34 billion yuan, 8.32 billion yuan, and 7.60 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year changes of -2.5%, -34.9%, and +20.5%. Gross margins for these segments were 11.5%, 9.9%, and 23.5%, showing slight improvements [2]. - The decline in revenue from smart acoustic systems was attributed to a transition period between old and new headphone products. The company is focusing on optimizing internal operational efficiency and improving product line efficiencies [2]. Future Growth Potential - The company anticipates revenue and profit growth in H2 2025 and 2026, driven by the launch of multiple new products, including AI/AR glasses and AirPods Pro. The company is positioned to benefit significantly as a core manufacturer for Meta's upcoming eyewear products [2][3]. - The company is enhancing its vertical integration capabilities in the AI/AR sector by acquiring key technologies and companies, such as Plessey, a leading MicroLED manufacturer, which is expected to strengthen its position in the industry [3]. Investment Outlook - Based on the mid-year performance and adjustments for stock incentive expenses, the company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 103.4 billion yuan, 131.9 billion yuan, and 163.6 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 3.3 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan, and 5.5 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are estimated at 31, 24, and 19 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].