美股攀高之路仍存障碍！投资者等待鲍威尔为降息“开绿灯”

Group 1 - The core focus is on the potential challenges for the U.S. stock market if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates as quickly as anticipated or abandons the idea of rate cuts altogether [1] - Market participants are particularly attentive to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, with expectations that he may acknowledge a high probability of a rate cut in September but will likely refrain from providing a detailed timeline due to ongoing inflation concerns [1][4] - The labor market's weakness is leading traders to bet on rate cuts, but inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of managing employment and inflation [4] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index has averaged a 0.4% increase in the week following the Jackson Hole conference since 2000, suggesting that unless there is a significant shift in monetary policy, the conference may not have a major impact on the stock market [4] - Powell has previously made impactful policy statements at Jackson Hole, such as indicating that the time for rate cuts had arrived, which led to a significant market reaction [6] - Upcoming economic data, including the August non-farm payroll report and the consumer price index, will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making process, with the core PCE price index expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.9% [6]