ZFX山海证券：杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会来袭！重点关注鲍威尔演讲！

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference will take place from August 21 to 23 in Wyoming, attracting global investor attention, particularly towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which is expected to provide insights into future monetary policy directions [1][4] - The theme of this year's conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," closely related to recent significant changes in the U.S. labor market, which has shown signs of cooling from May to July [3] - Non-farm payroll data for May and June was revised down by over 250,000, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, and wage growth slowing from 6% in June 2022 to approximately 3.9% [3] Group 2 - U.S. inflation data has been mixed, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing moderate increases, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9%, the largest monthly increase in over three years, indicating rising input inflation risks [5] - Investors are weighing economic data ahead of Powell's speech, with an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, as major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their forecasts for the first rate cut from December to September [10] - JPMorgan predicts that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% or higher in August, the Fed may aggressively cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with expectations of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December [11]