鲍威尔或采取折中方案，特朗普和市场都不会满意？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is facing unprecedented political pressure from former President Trump, which complicates its monetary policy decisions amid mixed economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may reveal a new monetary policy framework, simplifying the complex principles introduced five years ago [1]. - Some analysts predict a compromise in interest rate policy, with Powell potentially opening the door for a rate cut in September due to weak job growth, but without making further commitments until inflation concerns are addressed [2]. - Kansas City Fed President George suggests that a rate cut could send a dangerous signal to consumers regarding inflation control, emphasizing the importance of maintaining credibility in anchoring inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Independence - Trump's increasing political pressure on the Fed is seen as a threat to its independence, with any decision interpreted as either a concession to Trump or an unreasonable defiance [2][3]. - Trump has launched personal attacks on Powell and has called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, alleging conflicts of interest, although Cook has stated she will not resign due to "bullying" [3]. - The potential resignation or forced departure of Fed governors could give the White House greater influence over monetary policy and the appointment of regional Fed presidents, raising concerns about the erosion of the Fed's independence [4].