机构：今年长租公寓供应增速从41%降至9%，保租房成主力

Core Insights - The housing rental market in China is expanding, but the growth rate is significantly slowing down, revealing structural contradictions [1][2] Supply Side - As of June 2025, there are 416 new long-term rental apartment projects, with 340 disclosing the number of rooms, totaling 201,000 new rooms [1] - The projected total for new long-term rental apartment projects in 2025 is 800, with an expected supply increase of approximately 402,000 rooms [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of new openings has dropped from 41% in 2024 to 9%, indicating a shift from rapid growth to a more stable development phase [1] Supply Structure - Affordable rental housing has become the dominant segment, with 71% (112,000 rooms) of new openings classified as such [2] - Mid-to-low-end white-collar apartments remain the mainstream product, but there is insufficient differentiated product supply to meet diverse demands [2] - Large rental communities (over 1,000 rooms) have seen a significant increase in supply, with their share rising by 17 percentage points [2] - The concentration of new supply has led to oversupply in certain urban areas, intensifying irrational competition and forcing some projects to lower rental prices to maintain occupancy rates [2] Demand Side - Demand for entry-level products (e.g., youth apartments, small units) has benefited from increased supply, leading to a slowdown or even decline in rental price growth [2] - The share of improvement-driven demand (e.g., family-style, high-end serviced apartments) remains low, at less than 10%, requiring market-oriented products for supplementation [2] - Customized demand (e.g., corporate dormitories, talent apartments) has potential as a new growth point, but its current scale is limited [2] Market Transition - The year 2025 is deemed a pivotal year for the rental industry, marking the beginning of "China's Quality Rental Era" [2] - The market logic is undergoing a fundamental shift from "scale-first" to a high-quality development model focused on "slow scale, strong products, and refined operations" [2]