押注鲍威尔不会过度放鸽！美元多头强势回归

Group 1 - The bullish sentiment for the US dollar has reached a three-week high, indicating traders' bets that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not adopt an overly dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal indicator has been rising since the beginning of the month, reflecting increased confidence in the dollar [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have decreased, with current projections indicating a total of 47 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 63 basis points just over a week ago [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish tone in his upcoming speech, which could further support the dollar's strength, particularly against the euro [4] - If Powell's speech implies any potential for a rate cut in September, it may lead to a temporary sell-off of the dollar, although this is expected to be short-lived [4] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has seen a significant decline, with the previous month marking a near four-year low, leading to an oversupply of long positions in euros that remains unresolved [4]