鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔讲话要点一览

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Powell opens the door for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating that changes in baseline outlook and risk balance may require an adjustment in policy stance [1] - Labor market: The labor market remains close to full employment levels, with significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, suggesting rising downside risks to employment [1] - Inflation outlook: Short-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while long-term inflation expectations appear stable, with a focus on preventing one-time price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [1] Group 2 - Tariff impact: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are becoming clear, with expectations that this impact will continue to accumulate in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude remain highly uncertain [1] - Framework adjustment: The Federal Reserve has adopted a new policy framework, removing references to pursuing "inflation averaging 2% over the long term" and basing employment decisions on assessments of "the gap from maximum employment levels" [1]