美联储主席鲍威尔：风险平衡的转变或许意味着需要调整政策

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential need for policy adjustments due to a shift in risk balance, highlighting a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth and weakening consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current U.S. GDP growth is noticeably slowing, reflecting a decline in consumer spending [1] - The latest data shows that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in July, while the core PCE price index increased by 2.9% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve will abandon the flexible average inflation targeting framework adopted in 2020, removing references to the effective lower bound on interest rates [1] - Powell stated that the labor market is in a "peculiar balance," with the policy interest rate at a moderately tight level [1] - The Fed is cautious in considering policy adjustments due to stable unemployment rates, aiming to prevent transient price increases from evolving into persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Following Powell's speech, traders estimated a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the speech [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts before the end of the year [2]