最近在恐惧中度过

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by government fiscal expansion rather than improvements in the fundamental economy, leading to concerns about sustainability and potential adjustments in the near future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock market's rise this year is attributed to significant government intervention, with an estimated 3.5 trillion yuan injected into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks through various channels [2]. - Institutional confidence has increased following government investments, prompting further buying activity, while retail investors are still hesitant to enter the market [2][5]. - The current market sentiment is cautious, with many retail investors recalling past experiences of buying at market peaks and facing losses [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite the stock market's performance, key economic indicators such as GDP growth and employment have not shown significant improvement compared to last year, leading to skepticism about the market's upward trajectory [1][4]. - The government has increased the fiscal deficit rate from 3% to 4%, with net financing of government bonds reaching 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, indicating a need for careful fiscal management moving forward [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the stock market rally is contingent on continued government support and retail investor participation; without these, a market correction may be imminent [6][8]. - The government's focus on investing in projects with future returns suggests a cautious approach to fiscal spending, which could impact market dynamics if not aligned with corporate profitability [7][8].