鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔放鸽！强调就业风险，暗示可能因此需要降息

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic situation suggests an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate a rate cut [1][2][3] Economic Conditions and Outlook - The labor market remains close to maximum employment, but the unemployment rate has risen by nearly one percentage point, a development historically associated with recessions [4][6] - GDP growth has significantly slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending [6] - The labor market is experiencing a "peculiar balance" due to a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising employment risks [5][6] Inflation Dynamics - Short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [3][8] - Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in certain categories, with the PCE price index rising by 2.6% over the past 12 months, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to accumulate over the coming months, with significant uncertainty regarding timing and magnitude [7] Monetary Policy Implications - The current policy rate is closer to neutral than it was a year ago, allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments [8][9] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will base decisions on data assessments and their implications for economic outlook and risk balance [9] - The revised monetary policy framework aims to promote maximum employment and price stability under a variety of economic conditions [10][14]