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Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the current state of the U.S. economy and the outlook for short-term monetary policy, indicating a potential adjustment in policy stance due to the economy's resilience and the balance of inflation and employment risks [1][5][6]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy remains resilient, with the labor market close to full employment, although there are rising risks of employment downturns. Powell noted a "special balance" in the labor market, where both supply and demand are cooling, leading to a significant decrease in the threshold for new job creation needed to maintain stable unemployment [5][6]. - Inflation has receded from pandemic highs but remains elevated, with tariffs contributing to price increases. Powell anticipates that the impact of tariffs will continue to accumulate in the coming months, although he views the inflationary pressures as likely to be one-time adjustments rather than persistent [5][6]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell emphasized that the current policy interest rate is closer to neutral, situated within a restrictive range, and that there is no preset path for monetary policy. The Federal Reserve will base its decisions on economic data and risk assessments, adhering to a "data-driven" approach [6][7]. - Following Powell's remarks, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of the year [1]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, major U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by approximately 2%, the Nasdaq Composite up nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 increasing by over 1.5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index also rose by over 2.5% [2][1]. Monetary Policy Framework - Powell presented the results of the Federal Reserve's second public assessment of its monetary policy framework, which maintains the dual mandate of "maximum employment and stable prices." The framework has evolved since its initial release in 2012 and its first revision in 2020, reflecting changes in the economic environment [9][10]. - The adjustments to the framework are a response to the significant economic shifts post-COVID-19, including the highest inflation rates in 40 years, which diverged from the previously anticipated low inflation and effective lower bound constraints [10]. Long-term Inflation Target - The Federal Reserve continues to uphold a long-term inflation target of 2%, which is deemed low enough to avoid negatively impacting household and business decisions while allowing for counter-cyclical policy adjustments. However, there is no specific numerical target for "maximum employment" due to its measurement complexities and influences from non-monetary factors [10].