帮主郑重：鲍威尔释放重磅信号！9月降息板上钉钉？中长线投资者该这么看

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent signals indicate a potential interest rate cut in September, following Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, which have significantly influenced market expectations and movements [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Signals - Powell's speech opened the door for a possible rate cut in September, with market expectations for a cut rising from 65% to 85% following his comments [3]. - The two-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.27%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards rate cuts [3]. Employment and Inflation Concerns - Powell highlighted that while the job market is close to full employment, there are signs of slowing demand and supply, posing risks to economic stability [3]. - The imposition of new tariffs on steel and aluminum by the Trump administration has begun to increase consumer prices, contributing to short-term inflationary pressures [3]. Policy Framework Changes - The Federal Reserve has removed the "average inflation targeting" framework and is no longer focused solely on maximizing employment gaps, indicating a shift towards prioritizing inflation stability at 2% [4]. - This change suggests that the pace of potential rate cuts may be slower than market expectations, with projections for rate cuts in 2025 potentially reduced from four to two [4]. Investment Strategy Insights - Investors are advised to closely monitor employment and inflation data, as rising unemployment could increase the likelihood of rate cuts [5]. - The impact of tariffs on prices should be assessed to understand the sustainability of inflationary pressures [5]. - The recent market rally should be viewed with caution, as it may be driven more by sentiment than by fundamental economic support [5].