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我国债券市场流动性风险分析——基于多级交易网络的视角
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-22 15:58

Group 1 - The bond market is becoming a core area for financial stability in China, driven by the evolution of the economic development stage and structural changes in financing models [1][2][5] - As of March 2025, the proportion of government and corporate bonds in the total social financing scale has steadily increased, nearing 30% [2] - The bond market has expanded significantly, with the total issuance in 2024 reaching 79.6 trillion yuan, a 7.3-fold increase over the past decade [3] Group 2 - Liquidity is a key element for financial stability, and the stability of the bond market heavily relies on the stability of funding sources from various investors [6][11] - The relationship between liquidity and financial stability is highlighted, with liquidity risk being a significant source of financial instability [9][11] - The bond market's unique trading characteristics necessitate a new analytical framework for assessing vulnerability and risk transmission mechanisms [1][27] Group 3 - A multi-level network structure for bond trading has been proposed, illustrating the interconnections between different market participants and the liquidity transmission paths [12][16] - The structure includes large banks, small banks, and non-bank institutions, emphasizing the importance of short-term funding sources like repurchase agreements [16][17] - The self-evolving characteristics of this network structure demonstrate procyclical behavior, where rising bond prices lead to increased risk appetite and further investment [19][20] Group 4 - Various case studies illustrate the impact of policy adjustments on liquidity risk transmission within the bond market, highlighting the interconnectedness of different financial institutions [21][26] - The transmission paths show that large banks play a crucial intermediary role in liquidity provision, while non-bank institutions represent a potential weak link [26] - The analysis emphasizes the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to maintain stability in the bond market [27]