暗示降息，鲍威尔点燃市场｜全球财经连线

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and rising labor market risks during his speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, marking a significant moment in his tenure [1][2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but there are signs of significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [1] - Recent labor data revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [5] - The core consumer price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [5] Political and Market Pressures - Powell faces unprecedented political pressure from President Trump, who is advocating for aggressive rate cuts and influencing Fed decision-making [2][4] - The upcoming September meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, as Powell navigates between economic challenges and political pressures [4] Future Projections - Analysts predict that the Fed may officially begin the rate-cutting process in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut and a total reduction of approximately 100 basis points by mid-2024 [6] - The current low unemployment rate does not preclude the possibility of rate cuts, as the labor market is undergoing a "payroll recession" rather than a traditional unemployment recession [6] Implications for Asia - A potential rate cut by the Fed could positively impact Asian economies, particularly smaller open economies that rely heavily on trade, helping to alleviate export slowdown pressures [7] - The investment landscape in Asia may present numerous opportunities, especially in sectors related to high dividends and artificial intelligence, as central banks in the region have room to maneuver with rate cuts [7]