Ge Long Hui·2025-08-22 18:49Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong and mainland gas companies are experiencing stable gas sales, but growth in mainland city gas sales is slowing down, with potential for price margin recovery diminishing. The company maintains a clear dividend policy and has growth potential in renewable and green energy sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Hong Kong Gas Performance - Hong Kong China Gas reported 1H25 revenue of HKD 27.5 billion, flat year-on-year; core profit was HKD 3.08 billion, down 3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.96 billion, also down 3% year-on-year [1]. - Gas sales in Hong Kong remained stable at 14,935 TJ in 1H25, with residential gas volume up 2.5% due to a 0.8°C decrease in average temperature; commercial gas volume decreased by 2.3% due to changes in tourism patterns [1]. - The company expects gas sales in Hong Kong to remain flat in 2025, benefiting from a well-established pricing mechanism, with an anticipated EBITDA margin of around 52% [1]. Group 2: Mainland City Gas Performance - The company’s city gas sales volume reached 18.58 billion cubic meters in 1H25, essentially flat year-on-year; industrial gas volume remained stable, while commercial gas volume decreased due to warm winter effects [2]. - The city gas price margin was CNY 0.54 per cubic meter in 1H25, up 0.04 CNY year-on-year; the cost of gas purchase decreased by CNY 0.06 per cubic meter due to optimized self-sourced gas [2]. - The company anticipates that the price margin recovery will converge to CNY 0.02 per cubic meter in 2025, despite an expected expansion in pricing mechanisms [2]. Group 3: Renewable and Green Energy Potential - The company’s renewable energy business net profit reached HKD 116 million in 1H25, up 6% year-on-year; the shift towards a light-asset strategy is expected to drive growth in carbon services and asset management sales from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - The green energy business, including green methanol and SAF, is solidifying its production capacity, with a collaboration on green methanol with Fuan Energy and a SAF plant in Malaysia expected to begin trial production in September [2]. Group 4: Financial Adjustments and Target Price - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 6.03 billion, HKD 6.46 billion, and HKD 6.79 billion, reflecting a three-year CAGR of 6% [2]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 7.63, up from HKD 7.04, based on a 2.5x PB for 2025, considering the potential of renewable energy and green fuel business [2].