王石再次预测房价走势！前几次都很准，这回大概率又是对的

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to undergo an adjustment period lasting at least three to five years, as predicted by industry leader Wang Shi, who emphasizes the need for a long process to de-leverage and eliminate bubbles after over two decades of prosperity [1][3]. Group 1: Market Adjustment - Wang Shi's prediction is based on extensive research of historical real estate bubbles in Japan and the United States, indicating that the current market adjustment is necessary to digest the existing bubble [3][5]. - The real estate market has experienced a continuous decline for 27 months since the peak in 2021, reinforcing the need for a prolonged adjustment period [3]. Group 2: Industry Restructuring - A significant reshuffling in the real estate industry is anticipated, where companies with high debt levels may face mergers, restructuring, or bankruptcy, while financially stable firms are more likely to survive [5]. - Many previously rapidly expanding real estate companies are currently facing severe debt crises, leading to potential bankruptcies [5]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Despite the challenges, Wang Shi remains optimistic about the future of the real estate market, suggesting a gradual return to healthy development rather than a hard landing like Japan's experience [5]. - The Chinese real estate market is characterized by strong government policy guidance, which is expected to continue supporting the market through favorable policies aimed at stabilizing prices [5][7]. Group 4: Price Trends and Consumer Guidance - Wang Shi's insights indicate that housing prices are unlikely to rebound quickly, and those expecting a rapid return to previous highs may need to adjust their expectations [7]. - There will be significant differentiation in price trends across cities, with core areas in first-tier cities likely to see stable or rising prices, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to experience declines due to population outflows and high inventory [7]. - Buyers are advised to be cautious, avoiding oversupplied areas and considering the sale of less desirable properties while retaining high-quality assets in prime locations [7].