整治“内卷式”竞争初显成效 畅通价格传导还需政策加力

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of "involution" competition rectification across various industries has led to some improvement in industrial product prices, although the overall impact on price levels remains limited [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influences - Since July, there has been a significant increase in the futures prices of industrial products such as coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with the Nanhua Composite Index rising for four consecutive weeks [1]. - As of August 22, the current prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and other steel products, as well as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, are notably higher than early July levels [1]. - The rectification of "involution" competition has particularly focused on the photovoltaic industry, with polysilicon prices rising by 36.9% and industrial silicon prices by 7.26% from the beginning of the year to July [1][2]. Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) and Market Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showed a narrowing decline, indicating that the "involution" measures are beginning to have an effect on price levels [2][3]. - The prices in sectors such as coal mining, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing have seen reduced month-on-month declines compared to previous months [2]. - However, the overall price recovery trend remains unclear, as some sectors like cement have not shown significant improvement [3]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called for a more regulated competitive order in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for orderly exit of outdated capacities and resisting low-price competition [3][4]. - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumer demand, such as subsidies for childbirth and education, are expected to help improve the weak downstream demand situation [5]. - Analysts suggest that strengthening supply-side constraints could mitigate the impact of declining exports on demand, while more targeted demand-side policies may be necessary [5][6].