影响牛市最关键的一个信号，来了

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.35%, the Shenzhen Composite Index by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.36% [3][4] - The current bull market is characterized by a significant psychological and emotional battle, with the sustainability of the bull market relying on macroeconomic fundamentals and policies [4][5] - A key factor influencing the bull market is the potential interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, which could significantly impact market volatility [6][7] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market is exceptionally high, contributing to the current bull market, as evidenced by a significant decrease in risk-free interest-bearing products [8][10] - In July, there was a notable decrease in household deposits by 1.11 trillion, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion, indicating a shift in where residents are placing their funds [9] - The decline in yields on risk-free products has driven residents to invest more in the stock market, as the availability of products yielding over 2% has diminished [10][11] Group 3 - The government has high expectations for the A-share market, aiming to strengthen it as a key vehicle for resident wealth, with public funds expected to increase their holdings in A-shares significantly over the next few years [11][12] - The market is supported by three layers of investment: state-owned entities acting as stabilizers, public funds and insurance capital entering the market, and a substantial amount of excess household savings seeking higher returns [12][13] - The goal is to achieve a slow and steady bull market, akin to the U.S. market, rather than a volatile one that could lead to a rapid decline [14][15] Group 4 - For the bull market to be sustainable, it requires supportive economic policies and a favorable macroeconomic environment, including potential monetary policy adjustments [16][17] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies and the need for further monetary stimulus are crucial for improving the economic fundamentals that support the bull market [17] - The relationship between U.S. monetary policy and the Chinese market is critical, as any changes in the Fed's interest rate strategy could influence global market dynamics and the trajectory of the Chinese bull market [18][19]