鲍威尔放鸽，为降息敞开大门

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium indicates an increasing downside risk to employment, suggesting a potential need for interest rate cuts [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions and Short-term Outlook - Powell noted that the risk balance regarding the Fed's dual mandate of employment and inflation seems to be shifting, with stable labor market indicators allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments [2][10]. - The current economic situation shows a peculiar balance in the labor market due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, leading to increased downside risks for employment [15][16]. - The GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending, which is a concern for economic stability [16]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Powell stated that short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [3][20]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to lead to a one-time increase in price levels, but the full effects will take time to manifest in the economy [2][16]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation pressures despite a general decline from pandemic highs [16]. Monetary Policy Framework Adjustments - The Fed's new policy framework has removed references to achieving an average inflation target of 2% over time and the reliance on deviations from full employment as a decision-making basis [3][20]. - Powell emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset path and will be adjusted based on data and the evolving economic outlook [21][30]. - The revised consensus statement aims to ensure the framework is applicable under various economic conditions and reflects a deeper understanding of economic dynamics [22][26]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has shown signs of slowing, with job growth averaging only 35,000 per month over the past three months, significantly below the expected 168,000 for 2024 [12][15]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.2%, remaining historically low, but other labor market indicators have shown minimal changes [13][14]. - A significant reduction in immigration has contributed to a slowdown in labor supply growth, impacting the overall labor market dynamics [14][15].