Hu Xiu·2025-08-23 02:09Core Viewpoint - The three major telecom operators in China reported a year-on-year net profit growth of over 5% for the first half of 2025, despite stable revenue levels, leading to media headlines emphasizing their profitability. However, the decline in free cash flow raises concerns about their actual cash-generating capabilities [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The telecom operators' free cash flow has shown a downward trend over the past three years, with China Mobile reporting a free cash flow of 25.5 billion, a 62% decrease year-on-year, while China Telecom and China Unicom also experienced significant declines compared to 2023 [6][8]. - Despite the net profit growth, the decline in free cash flow indicates a weakening ability to distribute dividends or reinvest, reflecting the true financial health of these operators [9]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Following a peak in 5G investments from 2020 to 2023, the three operators have begun to reduce capital expenditures, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom decreasing their capital expenditures by 9%, 28%, and 15% respectively in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The reduction in capital expenditures positively impacted free cash flow for China Telecom and China Unicom, which saw slight increases in free cash flow due to this decrease [12]. Group 3: Operating Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for the three operators declined significantly, with China Mobile's operating cash flow net amount halving compared to the same period in 2023, while China Telecom and China Unicom also reported decreases of 19% and 3% respectively [14]. - The primary reasons for the decline in operating cash flow include increased payments to suppliers and a rise in accounts receivable due to slower collection from government enterprise projects [16][21]. Group 4: Accounts Receivable and Bad Debt Provisions - Accounts receivable for the three operators increased significantly, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom reporting year-on-year increases of 25%, 26%, and 19% respectively [22]. - The rise in accounts receivable has led to a substantial increase in bad debt provisions, with China Mobile and China Telecom seeing provisions grow by 33% and 59% respectively in 2025 [28][30]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The operators need to shift focus from merely increasing revenue to ensuring cash flow generation, particularly in the government enterprise market, to avoid a cycle of "paper profits" without actual cash [36]. - A return to high-quality development is essential for the operators to maintain competitiveness and ensure that enterprise business becomes a growth engine rather than a cash drain [35][36].