鲍威尔讲完，市场狂欢！美联储9月降息“大局已定”，然后呢？

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference is interpreted as a clear signal for a potential interest rate cut in September, but it also highlights increasing internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Financial markets reacted positively to Powell's speech, with U.S. stocks rising sharply and the Dow Jones reaching a historic high, while U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, particularly a 7.44 basis point drop in the 2-year yield [1]. - Wall Street strategists quickly adjusted their expectations, with Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti indicating that Powell's remarks strongly suggest a 25 basis point cut in September [1][3]. Group 2: Internal Divisions within the Fed - Despite the consensus on a September rate cut, there are significant internal disagreements among Fed officials, divided into three main camps: the dovish camp advocating for multiple cuts, the hawkish camp opposing cuts due to inflation concerns, and the centrist camp favoring a cautious approach [4][5]. - The dovish camp includes officials like Fed governors Waller and Bowman, who express concerns over labor market weakness, while the hawkish camp, represented by figures like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, remains skeptical about the need for cuts [4]. Group 3: Future Policy Uncertainty - Powell's acknowledgment of increasing risks in the labor market and potential inflation from tariffs complicates the Fed's future policy path, making it difficult to predict subsequent actions after a potential rate cut [5][6]. - The possibility of a "one-and-done" scenario, where only a single rate cut occurs, is highlighted as a realistic outcome depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [5][6]. Group 4: Data-Driven Decision Making - Powell's speech has shifted market focus from whether there will be a September cut to how many cuts may follow, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data in shaping future Fed decisions [6]. - The next FOMC meeting will be crucial as it will provide new economic forecasts, which will be more significant than the single rate cut decision itself [6].