鲍威尔超预期转“鸽”，美联储9月降息基本板上钉钉

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated increasing downside risks to employment and suggested that tariff impacts on inflation may be one-time events, implying a potential adjustment in policy stance [1][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell described the labor market as being in a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, which raises concerns about potential job losses and rising unemployment rates [1]. - He noted that while inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging situation for policy decisions [4]. Monetary Policy Implications - Powell's remarks have strengthened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the probability of such a move rising to around 92% immediately after his speech [4][5]. - Analysts believe that Powell's statements signal a consensus within the Fed for policy adjustments, with employment risks becoming a key trigger for changes [5][6]. Internal Fed Dynamics - There are significant internal divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate adjustments, with some officials expressing skepticism about the need for a rate cut in September [7][8]. - Despite these divisions, Powell's prioritization of employment risks suggests that disagreements may affect the pace of rate cuts rather than the direction [8]. Policy Framework Changes - Powell indicated a shift in the Fed's monetary policy framework, moving away from the "flexible average inflation targeting" adopted in 2020, which is no longer deemed suitable given current inflation levels [9]. - This adjustment allows the Fed more flexibility to prioritize employment over inflation targets when conflicts arise, potentially reshaping capital flows and providing opportunities for emerging market assets [9].