鸽派宣言提振股市，鲍威尔公开纠偏五年前政策，美国9月降息稳了？

Core Viewpoint - The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference highlighted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which is seen as a pivotal moment in his tenure, signaling a strong dovish stance that has led to a significant increase in market expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced substantial gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.89%, the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.88%, and the S&P 500 climbing by 1.52% [1][2]. - The market's positive response is attributed to Powell's strong dovish signals, which have pushed the probability of a rate cut in September to over 90% [1]. Group 2: Policy Framework Changes - Powell's speech is viewed as a summary of his years as Fed Chairman, where he acknowledged the limitations of the previous monetary policy framework and announced a significant adjustment, interpreted as a correction of past policy mistakes [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's core mission revolves around "stabilizing prices" and "promoting maximum employment," which often leads to a balancing act between these conflicting goals [2]. Group 3: Historical Context - In August 2020, the Fed, under Powell's leadership, revised its monetary policy framework to adopt an "average inflation targeting" approach, allowing inflation to exceed the 2% target temporarily as long as the long-term average remains around 2% [4][6]. - This framework influenced the inflation trajectory post-COVID-19, as the Fed maintained a low-interest rate policy despite rising inflation rates in 2021, due to the previous years' low inflation data [4][5]. Group 4: Future Implications - The recent policy shift allows the Fed to respond more flexibly to current inflation data, potentially leading to a rate cut in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut or even a 50 basis point reduction [8]. - The adjustment in the Fed's policy framework is expected to have significant implications for global liquidity, potentially alleviating capital outflow pressures in emerging markets and weakening the dollar, which could boost commodity prices [8][10].