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邓正红能源软实力:美联储鸽派信号提振 供应过剩隐忧犹存 国际油价小幅走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-23 05:19

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have boosted oil prices, but concerns about oversupply persist, with Morgan Stanley warning of a potential surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day next year [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Following Fed Chair Powell's dovish signals, oil prices saw a slight increase, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settling at $63.66 per barrel, up 0.22%, and Brent crude at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.09% [1]. - The market anticipates a supply surplus after the summer demand peak, which limits the extent of price increases [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has dampened hopes for a peace agreement, with no significant progress reported, impacting European energy costs [1][3]. - The U.S. has resumed importing Venezuelan oil while increasing military presence in the Caribbean, reflecting a dual strategy to ensure energy supply and exert pressure on Venezuela's government [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts that the oil market will face significant oversupply in the coming quarters, with Brent crude prices potentially dropping to $60 per barrel in Q1 [2]. - The OPEC production cut mechanism is seen as a critical support factor for oil prices, with a potential surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day expected between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 [3]. Group 4: Soft Power and Market Dynamics - The "three-dimensional dynamic model" of soft power reveals that current oil price fluctuations are influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical constraints, and supply-demand rebalancing [3]. - The Fed's dovish stance has led to a depreciation of the dollar, which in turn has increased the financial attributes of oil, adding approximately 2.3 basis points to its soft power value [3][5]. Group 5: Key Trends and Predictions - Short-term effects of Powell's dovish comments are expected to last 2-3 weeks, but there is caution regarding the upcoming U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data [8]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent crude carries a risk of overshooting, with OPEC likely to intervene if prices fall below $65 [8].