鲍威尔讲话暗示降息 专家称9月可能性很大

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months during his speech at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference [1][4]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but there is a significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [4]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [4]. Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that the balance of risks regarding employment and inflation is shifting, which may lead the Fed to consider a rate cut in September [4][10]. - The Fed's interest rate has been maintained in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% since December of the previous year, with concerns that government tariff policies could impact inflation [8]. Market Expectations - Prior to Powell's speech, the market anticipated an over 80% probability of a rate cut, which increased to over 90% following his remarks, reflecting a clear signal from Powell [10]. - Powell emphasized the need for careful evaluation of actual data and economic outlooks, acknowledging the uncertainties surrounding future rate cuts [9]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed revised its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, including the removal of the "average inflation targeting" framework in favor of a more flexible inflation target [4].