现在卖掉房子，是假“聪明”还是？内行人一席话道破真相

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, leading to a dilemma for many regarding whether to sell properties or hold onto them, with opinions divided between pessimists predicting price drops and optimists believing in a policy bottom [1][12]. Market Overview - The real estate market is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with urban housing vacancy rates soaring to 21.8%, far exceeding the internationally recognized reasonable level of 5% [4]. - Over half of the new residential properties in 70 major cities have seen year-on-year price declines, with the highest drop reaching 7.9% [4]. - The average transaction cycle for properties has extended to 97 days, indicating a significant decrease in liquidity [5]. Properties to Consider Selling - Old properties in third and fourth-tier cities should be approached with caution due to ongoing population outflow and industrial decline, which may lead to long-term depreciation [6]. - Properties with high debt pressure are concerning, as the average mortgage burden for Chinese households reached 41.3% in 2024, surpassing the international warning line of 40% [6]. - Non-owner-occupied "chicken rib" properties, especially if multiple similar properties are held, may be candidates for sale to optimize asset allocation [6]. Properties to Hold - High-quality properties in core cities, particularly first-tier and some strong second-tier cities, are recommended for retention due to their robust long-term value retention capabilities [7]. - Owner-occupied properties, especially first homes that serve essential living functions, should not be sold lightly [7]. - Properties benefiting from policy incentives, particularly those in urban renewal areas or meeting "good housing" standards, are likely to enjoy advantages from recent government measures [7]. Conclusion - There is no one-size-fits-all answer regarding whether to sell properties in the current market; decisions should be based on individual circumstances [10]. - The era of rising real estate prices is over, and the future market will exhibit more pronounced differentiation [12].