Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Bank maintains high growth in performance, with a sequential decline in interest margin and improvement in asset quality [1] Financial Performance Overview - In H1 2025, Jiangsu Bank's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.8% and 8.0% year-on-year, respectively, with sequential growth rates improving by 1.6 percentage points and declining by 0.1 percentage points [2] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 2 basis points to 0.84%, while the provision coverage ratio fell by 12 percentage points to 331% [2] Revenue and Profit Growth - Jiangsu Bank's revenue and profit growth rates in H1 2025 remained in the single digits, aligning with market expectations. The revenue growth improved compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to a reduction in the drag from other non-interest income, while net interest income continued to grow significantly [3] - Other non-interest income decreased by 20% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 13 percentage points compared to Q1 2025. Net interest income grew by 19% year-on-year, with a slowdown of 3 percentage points compared to Q1 2025 [3] - The bank's tax expenses significantly decreased year-on-year, offsetting the increased impairment losses, mainly due to enhanced recovery and disposal of non-performing assets [3] - For the full year, revenue and profit growth are expected to maintain single-digit increases, supported by strong loan growth in the first half and potential gains from bond investments [3] Interest Margin Analysis - In Q2 2025, Jiangsu Bank's interest margin declined by 18 basis points to 1.62%, with asset yield decreasing more than the cost of liabilities [4] - The asset yield fell by 26 basis points to 3.49%, influenced by lower loan and bond market rates, with respective declines of 17 basis points and 31 basis points compared to H2 2024 [4] - The cost of liabilities decreased by 9 basis points to 1.83%, continuing the downward trend due to the maturity of high-interest deposits and the renewal of interbank liabilities [4] - The costs of deposits, bond issuance, and interbank liabilities decreased by 24 basis points, 20 basis points, and 20 basis points, respectively, compared to H2 2024 [4] - Future interest margin declines are expected to narrow as loan and deposit declines are roughly matched [4] Asset Quality Improvement - Key risk indicators improved in Q2 2025, with the NPL ratio, attention rate, and overdue rate decreasing by 2 basis points, 9 basis points, and 1 basis point to 0.84%, 1.24%, and 1.10%, respectively [5] - The NPL generation rate in H1 2025 decreased by 37 basis points to 1.34% compared to 2024 [5] - By product type, the NPL ratios for corporate and retail loans decreased by 9 basis points and 1 basis point to 0.88% and 0.87%, respectively [5] - The provision coverage ratio fell by 12 percentage points to 331%, with impairment amounts slightly lower than the NPL generation [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Jiangsu Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 8.40%, 7.79%, and 6.83% for 2025-2027, with corresponding book values per share of 14.36, 15.74, and 17.21 yuan [6] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.78, 0.71, and 0.65 for 2025-2027. The target price is set at 14.16 yuan per share, corresponding to a PB of 0.99 for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 27% [6]
江苏银行(600919):营收和不良改善