鲍威尔暗示降息 全球资产或迎来“黄金窗口”

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months despite ongoing inflation risks, marking a rare signal for rate reduction this year [1] - Following Powell's remarks, the US dollar index fell, while major US stock indices rose significantly, with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increasing nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 up by 1.6% [1] - The current high yield of US Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year yield at around 4.3%, suggests that if the Fed signals rate cuts, bond prices may rise, presenting capital gain opportunities for bondholders [1] Group 2 - The logic behind the current global capital rebalancing is driven by weakening fundamentals in the US, leading the Fed to potentially restart rate cuts, which may redirect funds towards non-US assets with stronger short-term economic prospects [2] - Historical trends indicate that after each round of Fed rate cuts, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have generally experienced upward movements, suggesting a similar pattern may occur following the anticipated cuts [2] - The gold market is closely monitoring Powell's statements for insights into future interest rate paths, with current technical analysis indicating that as long as gold prices remain above $3,200 per ounce, the overall upward trend is likely to continue [2]