出乎意料的言论！鲍威尔一席话引爆大行情 美元大跌、金价大涨33美元

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the US dollar index and the surge in gold prices are primarily driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, which strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On Friday, spot gold closed up $33.05, an increase of 0.98%, reaching $3,371.51 per ounce [1]. - The US dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold priced in dollars relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [2]. - Following Powell's remarks, the two-year US Treasury yield dropped by 10 basis points to 3.69% [3]. Group 2: Powell's Speech Insights - Powell indicated that while he did not commit to a rate cut, changes in risk conditions may necessitate a policy adjustment [3]. - He emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of employment stability and inflation management, acknowledging the risks posed by tariffs on consumer prices [3]. - Powell's comments opened a potential pathway for a rapid rate cut in September, positively impacting various asset classes, including gold [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The CME's FedWatch Tool shows that traders currently estimate an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% before Powell's speech [4]. - Market analysts suggest that if the belief in a continued rate cut cycle solidifies, the US dollar is likely to weaken further [4]. - The importance of upcoming employment and inflation data before the Fed's decision-making meeting on September 16-17 is highlighted [4].