美联储降息倒计时？鲍威尔首提9月行动，黄金原油齐涨

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential monetary policy easing in September if inflation continues to decline, marking a significant shift in policy direction [2][3] - The market reacted strongly, with gold prices surging 3.2% to over $2500 per ounce, Brent crude oil surpassing $95, and the offshore RMB appreciating over 500 basis points in a single day [2][4] - The probability of a rate cut in September jumped from 32% to 78%, with expectations for cumulative cuts in 2023 increasing from 75 basis points to 125 basis points [3] Group 2 - Powell acknowledged a clear trend of declining inflation, with the core PCE price index remaining between 2.3% and 2.5% for five consecutive months [3] - The current interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% may exceed the neutral rate, raising concerns about the risks of over-tightening [3] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with non-farm payrolls adding only 185,000 jobs in July, below the expected 220,000 [3] Group 3 - Global asset prices began a "repricing" phase, with gold and oil markets experiencing significant gains due to expectations of lower real interest rates and geopolitical risks [4] - The oil market is supported by expectations of a weaker dollar, with UBS estimating that a 1% drop in the dollar index typically leads to a 1.5%-2% increase in oil prices [4] - The stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high while the Dow Jones faced slight declines due to banking sector pressures [4] Group 4 - Central banks worldwide are adjusting their policies in response to the Fed's shift, with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank signaling potential rate cuts [5] - Emerging markets are also accelerating their easing measures, with Brazil and India taking notable actions [5] - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is evident, with countries like Russia increasing their yuan reserves and Argentina replacing the dollar in trade settlements [5] Group 5 - Investment strategies may need recalibration, with gold mining stocks and industrial metals being favored due to their benefits from a weaker dollar and increased demand for new energy [6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are seen as an attractive option, with the 10-year yield potentially dropping to 3.8% [6] - Technology growth stocks, particularly in AI and quantum computing, remain preferred investments in a loosening monetary environment [6]