扛不住特朗普“逼宫”？美联储主席鲍威尔暗示降息！这对中国会有何影响？

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months during his speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference on August 22 [3] - Following Powell's remarks, global financial markets reacted strongly, with major US stock indices surging, the Dow Jones reaching a new high, the dollar dropping over 1%, and gold prices exceeding $3,400 per ounce [3] - Powell noted that while the US economy shows some resilience, there are increasing signs of a slowdown in the labor market and economic growth, which may prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts [3][5] Group 2 - The US economy grew at a rate of only 1.2% in the first half of the year, significantly lower than the same period in 2024, with weak consumer spending contributing to this slowdown [5] - Political pressure on Powell, particularly from former President Trump, has also influenced the Fed's considerations for rate cuts [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September exceed 90%, although the Fed emphasizes that monetary policy decisions will depend on actual data and economic outlook [5] Group 3 - A potential rate cut by the Fed could narrow the interest rate differential between the US and China, potentially leading to capital inflows into China and providing more room for Chinese monetary policy adjustments [7] - Historically, when the Fed initiates a rate-cutting cycle, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to experience upward trends, indicating a favorable environment for these markets [8] - Chinese asset prices may rise as liquidity increases, benefiting growth stocks in sectors like technology and renewable energy, while also attracting foreign investment in the bond market [9]