积极信号！减产控销破“内卷”，多因素支撑光伏硅料价格上涨！

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to production cuts and controlled sales by polysilicon manufacturers, which have alleviated market supply pressure [1][3]. Polysilicon Market - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 47,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.05%, while N-type granular silicon has reached 46,000 yuan/ton, up 3.37% week-on-week [1]. - Major polysilicon producers are implementing varying degrees of production cuts, with the largest reductions from the top two companies, leading to increased overall costs and expectations for price increases [1]. - The controlled sales strategy by polysilicon companies has further tightened supply, contributing to a "buy high, not low" mentality among downstream buyers, resulting in increased procurement demand [1]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Despite the price increases, there are still pressures in the silicon supply chain, with some manufacturers planning to resume production due to the significant price rise, although inventory levels are expected to increase [3]. - The silicon industry association anticipates an additional inventory accumulation of approximately 20,000 tons in August and September [3]. - The average price of silicon wafers has remained stable, with 183N, 210RN, and 210N wafer prices at 1.20 yuan/piece, 1.35 yuan/piece, and 1.55 yuan/piece, respectively, unchanged from the previous week [3]. Future Outlook - The silicon industry association predicts that polysilicon prices will continue to rise due to policies promoting price increases, with some wafer manufacturers already starting to raise prices slightly [4]. - Current prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N wafers are reported at 1.25 yuan/piece, 1.40 yuan/piece, and 1.60 yuan/piece, respectively, with future price adjustments dependent on downstream acceptance [4]. - The battery segment's average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N remain stable at 0.29 yuan/W, 0.285 yuan/W, and 0.285 yuan/W, respectively, with limited volatility expected in the short term due to weak terminal demand [4]. Component Market - The component market continues to experience weak terminal demand, with new order volumes being low and primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders [5]. - Recent bidding prices for components range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.75 yuan/W, with rising prices affecting market sentiment and requiring close observation of policy implementation [5].