鲍威尔意外“放鸽”，分析师发警告

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally, the largest since April [1] - Powell indicated that changes in risk balance may necessitate adjustments in policy, hinting at a possible rate cut in September, although he did not provide a firm commitment [1] - The immediate market reaction included a sharp decline in Treasury yields, with the two-year yield dropping 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a September rate cut rising from 70% to 80% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists view Powell's remarks as a reassurance to the market, but caution that the market may be overreacting [2] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, particularly due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [2] - The market's enthusiastic response reflects a mixed sentiment among investors, who are hopeful for liquidity easing but worried about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term market growth [2]