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大咖研习社 | 国泰基金朱丹:2025年秋季海外政策及大类资产配置展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-23 09:38

Group 1: Overview of Market Conditions - The first half of 2025 saw a significant decline in the US dollar index, dropping over 10%, leading to increased global liquidity and strong performance in liquidity-related assets such as gold, emerging market stock indices, and currencies [1] - The US economy is expected to maintain resilience in Q3 2025, despite recent weak non-farm data, which is considered seasonal [3] - Inflation in the US is projected to peak in September 2025 before declining in Q4, which will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [4] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - There is a consensus in the market that an interest rate cut is likely in September 2025, with some disagreement on the extent of the cut [5] - The US is entering a period of significant fiscal expansion, supported by the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" plan, which is expected to coincide with monetary easing [6] Group 3: Asset Class Performance Expectations - The outlook for major asset classes in Q3 2025 suggests a short-term strengthening of the dollar, but long-term depreciation is anticipated [8] - US equities are expected to benefit from a weak dollar, although high valuations may limit future expansion [9] - Gold is viewed as having long-term allocation value, with potential short-term volatility [10] - Silver is expected to outperform gold in the short term due to its higher recovery potential [11] - Copper demand remains strong, particularly from AI and new energy vehicles, despite potential risks from tariff policies [12] - Oil supply is expected to remain loose, with reduced geopolitical risks, although demand may decline [13] - US Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to inflation expectations, limiting the extent of interest rate cuts [14] - The dollar may experience a temporary stabilization and rebound, although the extent of this rebound is expected to be limited [15]