债市突然调整，后市怎么走？基金最新研判

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market is primarily driven by changes in market sentiment, with a notable "stock-bond seesaw" effect observed as the stock market rises while the bond market experiences significant declines [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - Since early July, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.78%, an increase of 8.2%, while the yield on 30-year bonds has reached 2.08%, up 11.46% [3]. - The bond market's decline is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in macroeconomic expectations, a stable short-term monetary policy, and a shift in risk appetite due to a strong stock market [1][5][6]. Investor Behavior - Despite some redemption pressure on bond funds, the overall situation remains manageable, with no large-scale redemptions reported [7][9]. - The sentiment in the bond market is weak due to expectations of a bull market in equities, leading to significant redemptions on days when bond prices fall [7][10]. Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the bond market will not experience a significant downturn, as fundamental and monetary policy factors are expected to provide support [9][10]. - The bond market is likely to exhibit a "grinding top" pattern in the short term, with a focus on mid-to-short duration assets for better yield [9][11]. - There is a potential for increased monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter if economic data continues to show weakness, which could lead to a slight decrease in bond yields [10].