鲍威尔演讲“鸽声嘹亮”，降息信号致金价美股齐涨！特朗普却未必高兴

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a "peculiar balance" in the U.S. labor market, suggesting rising risks of job losses and increasing unemployment rates [2][10]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Conditions - Powell described the labor market as being in a "peculiar balance," where both supply and demand are slowing down, leading to increased risks of job losses [2]. - Economist Noah Youssef noted that this "peculiar balance" might reflect a structural change, with employers maintaining output while reducing hiring, potentially through technology like AI [2]. - The labor market is close to maximum employment, but inflation risks remain, with Powell emphasizing the need to focus on rising unemployment risks [10][11]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Powell's speech was interpreted as a signal that the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates, with market expectations for a September rate cut rising from 75% to 89% following his remarks [6][8]. - Analysts believe that Powell's dovish stance indicates a readiness to cut rates to address the downward risks in the labor market, benefiting sectors like housing and banking [8]. - Powell also highlighted the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence amid pressures from former President Trump to lower rates [8][10]. Group 3: Impact of Trump's Policies - Trump's trade and immigration policies have disrupted the market, leading the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts as a response to economic instability [3][10]. - Analysts suggest that the recent tariffs implemented by the Trump administration may have a lasting impact on prices, prompting the Fed to monitor the situation closely [11]. - The balance between high interest rates, which pose employment risks, and low rates, which could exacerbate inflation, is a critical focus for the Federal Reserve [11].