速看2025选择“留房”是“留钱”？内行人一语道破，涨知识了！

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes in 2025, leading families to face critical decisions about whether to hold onto properties or liquidate assets for cash [1][6]. Macro Background - The real estate market has entered an adjustment phase, with over half of new residential prices in 70 major cities declining month-on-month in the first half of 2025. While first-tier cities saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1.2%, third and fourth-tier cities experienced a price drop of 5.8% [1]. - The national birth rate fell to 9.56 million in 2024, the lowest since 1949, indicating a diminishing population dividend that impacts housing demand. The national housing vacancy rate reached 21%, with some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 30% [1]. Value of Holding Property - Real estate retains value as a physical asset that can hedge against inflation, with first-tier city core properties appreciating at an annual rate of 3.5%, outpacing the 2.1% CPI increase in Q1 2025 [2]. - The scarcity of quality assets remains, with a 15% year-on-year reduction in residential land supply in Shanghai for 2025, indicating potential long-term value in high-demand areas [2]. Cash Holding Value - The value of holding cash is increasing, with 10-year treasury yields at 3.1% and bank deposit rates between 2.8% and 2.5%, while wealth management products offer returns over 4% [3]. - The national household leverage ratio reached 70.5% in 2025, indicating high repayment pressure on indebted families. A cash reserve equivalent to 3-6 times annual income is recommended for financial stability [3]. Asset Allocation Insights - A survey of 5,000 households suggests that young families should limit their first home down payment to 70% of total assets, while middle-aged families should aim for a balanced asset allocation of 40% in real estate, 40% in financial assets, and 20% in cash [4]. - The choice of city is crucial, with first and strong second-tier cities experiencing a net inflow of 970,000 residents, while third and fourth-tier cities face a net outflow of 1.62 million [4]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market is shifting to a phase of stock competition, with expected sales of 1.23 billion square meters in 2025, a 34% decline from the peak in 2021. Factors such as location, quality, and functionality are becoming key to property value retention [5]. - The average mortgage rate in 2025 is 4.1%, higher than most investment product yields, prompting high-debt families to consider early repayment or reducing leverage [6]. Conclusion - The decision to "hold property" or "hold cash" is not binary. The real estate market is entering a rational development phase, emphasizing housing's residential nature over speculative investment [6][8].