稀土战争升级！中国出台总量调控新规，全球产业链骤紧

Core Viewpoint - The new regulations on rare earths in China are expected to significantly impact the global supply chain, leading to price surges and strategic adjustments by international companies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Total Control Management Measures for Rare Earth Products" limits China's rare earth mining quota to 240,000 tons for 2025, a mere 3% increase from 2024, which is below the global demand growth of 6% [3]. - The new policy also tightens the quotas for rare earth smelting and separation, with southern ion-type rare earth smelting capacity utilization capped at below 70% [3]. - Specific quotas for strategic elements like praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium have been introduced, with neodymium supply expected to remain unchanged year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Global Impact - The new regulations have triggered immediate reactions from global companies, with Toyota adjusting its electric vehicle production plans and Siemens initiating strategic reserves due to increased costs for neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials [4]. - The U.S. Raytheon Company has warned that its rare earth inventory for the Patriot missile guidance system will only last for nine months under current conditions [4]. - Despite efforts from companies like Lynas in Australia and MP Materials in the U.S. to ramp up production, it is projected that overseas rare earth capacity will only meet 28% of global demand by 2025 [4]. Group 3: Technological and Economic Implications - The value of rare earths increases significantly through processing, with raw ore valued at approximately 30,000 yuan per ton, while processed permanent materials can reach up to 800,000 yuan, and precision motors can be valued at 12 million yuan [6]. - The U.S. Department of Defense recognizes the strategic importance of rare earths, linking them to the production capabilities of advanced military systems like the F-35 fighter jet [6]. - China is enhancing its rare earth processing technologies, with innovations in green extraction and recycling systems that improve resource utilization rates [6]. Group 4: Future Trends - The rare earth market is expected to evolve into a "three-legged" competition, with China maintaining dominance in heavy rare earth supply, while Western nations accelerate support for projects in Australia, Canada, and India [7]. - Long-term competition will focus on technological alternatives and resource recycling, with projections indicating that by 2030, 30% of global rare earth demand could be met through recycling [7]. - The new policies serve as both a defensive measure and a strategic offensive tool for China, emphasizing the importance of controlling key resources in the context of global industrial competition [7].