21深度｜鲍威尔的“遗产”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Powell's leadership, particularly the shift from the "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) to the "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) framework, reflecting the changing economic conditions and the need for a more responsive policy approach [1][7][11] Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Evolution - In the 1970s, the U.S. faced high inflation, prompting then-Fed Chair Volcker to raise interest rates to 20%, which led to a significant GDP decline [1] - Powell's initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic was slow, as he underestimated the persistence of inflation, which surged unexpectedly [2][3] - The Fed's initial belief in "transitory inflation" was widely accepted, but by mid-2021, it became clear that inflation was not temporary, leading to a tightening of monetary policy starting in November 2021 [2][6] Group 2: New Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's new framework, FIT, emphasizes a 2% inflation target while allowing for more flexibility in response to economic conditions, moving away from the previous FAIT approach [5][7] - Key modifications in the new framework include the removal of references to "employment shortfalls," allowing for preemptive actions against rising inflation risks [7][8] - The FIT framework aims for a more generalized policy response, acknowledging the complexities of the current economic environment, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions [8][10] Group 3: Legacy and Future Implications - Powell's legacy includes the formal transition to FIT, modernizing the Fed's toolkit, and institutionalizing regular reviews of monetary policy [9][10] - The new framework is expected to lead to a world characterized by moderate inflation, higher neutral interest rates, and frequent supply shocks, with a stricter adherence to the 2% inflation target [10][11] - The Fed's approach is shifting towards a more proactive stance, utilizing real-time data to inform decisions rather than waiting for lagging indicators [11]