新美联储通讯社：鲍威尔释放谨慎降息信号，不要期待利率快速下降

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is cautiously opening the door to interest rate cuts, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as indicated by Chairman Powell's recent statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Powell describes the labor market as "peculiar," with a stable unemployment rate masking a decline in both labor supply and demand [2]. - He warns against focusing solely on supply-side constraints, such as immigration policy, which may overlook weakening demand signals that could lead to a rapid deterioration in the job market [2]. - A cooling labor market could help prevent a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices driven by tariffs [2]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Inflation Concerns - Despite Powell's efforts to build consensus, there is significant resistance within the Federal Reserve regarding the rationale for rate cuts, with some officials arguing that inflation remains too high [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that price pressures are increasing and questioned whether tariff-driven price hikes are merely temporary [3]. - External economists, like Michael Strain, believe Powell's remarks underestimate inflation pressures and overstate the risks of a weakening labor market [3]. Group 3: Cautious Easing Strategy - Powell's cautious tone this year contrasts sharply with his more decisive stance from the previous year, reflecting a fundamental shift in economic conditions [5]. - The current environment of high inflation and lower interest rates necessitates a more restrained approach to monetary easing [5]. - The market should not expect rapid rate cuts unless there is a significant and sudden deterioration in the labor market [6].