Ge Long Hui·2025-08-23 12:03Core Viewpoint - The company experienced significant revenue acceleration in Q2 2025, driven by high-frequency food delivery, which boosted both the main site and logistics business, but profits were notably impacted by increased food delivery subsidies [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth - In Q2 2025, the company achieved product revenue of 282.41 billion yuan, with the electronics category contributing 178.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, surpassing the Bloomberg forecast of 15.2% [2] - The daily essentials category generated 103.43 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, also exceeding the Bloomberg expectation of 13.9% [2] - The company’s quarterly active consumers (QAC) and purchase frequency both grew by over 40% in Q2 [2] Group 2: Logistics Performance - The logistics segment reported revenue of 51.56 billion yuan in Q2 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, which was above the Bloomberg forecast of 12.1% [2] - The logistics business accelerated due to increased demand from food delivery services [2] Group 3: Profitability and Losses - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 7.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.9%, primarily due to increased losses in the food delivery segment [3] - The company’s new business incurred losses of 14.78 billion yuan in Q2, significantly higher than the Bloomberg expectation of 10.66 billion yuan [3] - It is anticipated that food delivery losses will exceed those of Q2 in Q3, but a reduction in subsidies due to intensified competition from Alibaba may alleviate some profit pressure in Q4 and into the next year [3] Group 4: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to 1,327.6 billion yuan, 1,396.7 billion yuan, and 1,464.2 billion yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates [4] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are now 22.8 billion yuan, 43.6 billion yuan, and 52.0 billion yuan, slightly adjusted from earlier forecasts [4] - The target market value for the company is estimated at 542.1 billion yuan, translating to a target share price of 186.37 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]