国金证券：政策与市场双重驱动下 固态电池市场在新兴领域或迎需求爆发

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing accelerated development, with technological breakthroughs and commercialization progressing simultaneously, particularly in semi-solid batteries achieving large-scale applications [1] Group 1: Solid-State Battery Development - The focus of all-solid-state batteries has shifted towards sulfide routes, which improve safety and energy density by replacing flammable organic electrolytes with non-flammable inorganic solid electrolytes [2] - Sulfide solid electrolytes exhibit high ionic conductivity and good mechanical properties at room temperature, indicating significant future potential, with plans for 3,000 vehicles equipped with sulfide solid-state batteries by 2027 [3] Group 2: Key Materials and Competition - Lithium sulfide is a core raw material for sulfide electrolytes, with purity being a critical parameter affecting production; the industry is currently in the engineering verification stage [4] - The competitive landscape for lithium sulfide is relatively favorable, with higher technical barriers compared to sulfide electrolytes, and costs are expected to decrease as production routes mature [4] Group 3: Market Potential and Policy Support - The solid-state battery industry is projected to transition from initial market development to a rapid growth phase by 2027, supported by a comprehensive policy framework [5] - By 2024, China's solid-state battery shipment is expected to reach approximately 7 GWh, with projections of 18 GWh by 2027 and 30 GWh by 2028, driven by demand in high-energy density and high-safety applications such as eVTOL and humanoid robots [5]