有色金属行业观察：铜关税冲击与铝市博弈

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper and copper-intensive products, leading to increased volatility in the global copper market [1] - U.S. copper processing companies face rising costs due to tariffs, prompting some to consider relocating production overseas or back to the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has set restrictions on the domestic sales of high-quality scrap copper, which will increase from 25% in 2027 to 40% by 2029, further limiting raw material flexibility for processing companies [1] Group 2: Performance of Leading Companies - China, as a major copper processing and consumption center, has seen a surge in demand for new energy projects, but concerns about falling copper prices persist due to U.S. tariff policies [2] - Leading companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co. have demonstrated resilience, with a 60.07% year-on-year increase in net profit and a 12.68% rise in copper production in the first half of 2025 [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper production capacity in the Democratic Republic of Congo has exceeded 650,000 tons annually, indicating strong operational performance [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market Overview - The aluminum market is characterized by weak supply-demand balance, with U.S. aluminum processing companies facing cost pressures leading to price increases for some products [3] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventories have increased due to higher casting volumes and preemptive stocking by some end-users, while the price of aluminum in Shanghai has been fluctuating around 20,700 yuan per ton [3] - The alumina market continues to experience oversupply, although disruptions in bauxite supply have eased tensions, keeping spot prices stable [3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Policy Implications - The copper and aluminum markets are experiencing divergence due to tariffs and policy disruptions, with the copper industry undergoing structural adjustments while the aluminum market awaits concrete demand signals [4] - The industry must closely monitor macroeconomic policy shifts and marginal supply-demand changes to navigate the upcoming cyclical challenges [4]