7月非农数据超预期，新增14.7万人推动美元走强

Group 1 - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the market expectation of 104,000 to 110,000, and prior values were substantially revised down [1][8] - The revisions for May and June were drastic, with May's initial value of 144,000 revised down to 19,000 (a reduction of 125,000) and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 (a reduction of 133,000), totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined, marking the largest adjustment since the pandemic [3][12] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling faster than anticipated, as indicated by the weak non-farm data [8][11] Group 2 - Following the release of the non-farm data, the dollar index fell sharply, with a daily drop of 1%, falling below the 99 mark to around 98.9, contrary to expectations of a stronger dollar [7][8] - The market's reaction indicates a shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with the probability of rate cuts rising significantly from 40% to 73% for September, and the annual expectation for rate cuts increasing from 1.5 to 2.5 times [8][12] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for rate cuts under manageable inflation conditions, suggesting that delaying action could worsen the labor market situation [8][12] Group 3 - The employment landscape is showing a stark contrast between sectors, with healthcare and social assistance adding 55,000 jobs and educational services increasing by 18,000, indicating stable demand in the service sector [8][12] - Conversely, manufacturing jobs have seen negative growth for three consecutive months, and there have been reductions in retail and temporary positions, reflecting weakness in cyclical industries [8][12] - Federal government employment decreased by 12,000, highlighting ongoing layoffs in government efficiency departments [8][12]