鲍威尔的三件“遗产”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has shifted its monetary policy framework from "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) to "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT), reflecting the need to adapt to changing economic conditions and persistent inflation challenges [2][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Evolution - In the 1970s, high inflation in the U.S. reached 13.3%, prompting then-Fed Chair Volcker to raise interest rates to 20%, which ultimately led to a GDP contraction from 5.5% in 1978 to -1.8% in 1982 [2]. - Powell's tenure has seen a significant inflation surge post-pandemic, with the Fed's initial response being slow, as they underestimated the persistence of inflation driven by supply chain disruptions and demand recovery [4][5]. - The Fed's previous framework, established in 2020, was designed for low inflation and low interest rates, which became irrelevant as inflation surged to levels not seen in decades [7][8]. Group 2: New Monetary Policy Framework - The transition to FIT involves a more stringent approach to inflation targeting, reinstating the 2% inflation goal while allowing for proactive measures in response to inflation risks [10][11]. - Key modifications in the new framework include the removal of references to "employment shortfalls," allowing for preemptive actions against rising inflation, and a commitment to regular evaluations of the policy framework every five years [10][11]. - The FIT framework emphasizes a more generalized policy response, moving away from the low-rate world assumptions, and acknowledges uncertainties related to tariffs, supply chains, and neutral interest rates [10][11]. Group 3: Legacy and Future Implications - Powell's legacy may include the formal closure of the FAIT framework, the modernization of the Fed's toolkit, and the institutionalization of policy reviews, which are seen as sustainable assets for future monetary policy [13][14]. - The new framework aims to establish a more robust inflation anchor while allowing for flexibility in response to economic shocks, with expectations of a world characterized by moderate inflation and higher neutral rates [15][16]. - The Fed's approach is shifting towards a more data-driven model, focusing on leading indicators and allowing for timely adjustments to monetary policy, which reflects lessons learned from the pandemic era [16].