美联储鲍威尔“放鸽”：人民币或回6时代，金价或创新高

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish stance taken by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the global central bank meeting has led to significant fluctuations in global asset prices, particularly benefiting risk assets [1]. Market Reactions - Powell's dovish remarks resulted in a sharp decline in the US dollar index, which fell by nearly 1%, marking its largest single-day drop since April [1]. - Non-US currencies appreciated significantly, with most currencies rising by 1% in a single day [1]. - The Chinese yuan's appreciation against the US dollar was less than expected, with onshore and offshore yuan rising only 112 and 120 points respectively, both under 0.2% [1]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The report anticipates that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points in September, the dollar index may decline further [1]. - It is projected that the Fed may lower rates again in the fourth quarter and potentially two more times in the second half of 2025 [1]. - The stability of the yuan is highlighted, with the CFETS yuan index remaining steady at 96.17 on August 15 and 22 [1]. Asset Performance - Ethereum surged to approximately $4,880, marking a more than 15% increase in a single day and over 250% rebound since its low in April [1]. - Gold futures rose by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 2.10% to $38.88 per ounce [1]. - Crude oil prices also saw gains, with WTI crude rising by 0.39% to $63.77 per barrel and Brent crude up by 0.24% to $67.28 per barrel [1]. Investment Trends - The expectation of a Fed rate cut has led to increased inflows into Chinese assets, with hedge funds rapidly buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks [1]. - China has emerged as the market with the highest net purchases in institutional brokerage activities since August [1].