馅饼还是陷阱？存款利率持续下行，中小银行逆势“高息揽储”

Core Viewpoint - The disparity in deposit interest rates between large state-owned banks and smaller banks is becoming increasingly pronounced, with smaller banks offering significantly higher rates to attract depositors in a low-interest environment [3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rates for large state-owned banks have dropped to the "1" range, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1% and savings account rates as low as 0.05% [3]. - In contrast, smaller banks are offering higher rates, such as Shanghai Huari Bank's 2.35% for a two-year large deposit certificate and Guizhou Bank's 2.45% for a three-year product [3]. - The average interest rates for various deposit terms are projected to remain low, with the three-month average at 0.943% and the one-year average at 1.278% as of July 2025 [5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Smaller banks are leveraging higher interest rates as a strategy to attract depositors due to their weaker brand influence and customer base compared to larger banks [5]. - The competition for deposits is intensifying as the growth rate of household savings is slowing, while funds are increasingly flowing into investment products like mutual funds and stocks [5]. Group 3: Challenges for Smaller Banks - Smaller banks face a dilemma of balancing asset expansion with risk accumulation, as seen in a private bank with a 17.11% asset growth rate relying on high-interest deposits [5]. - The net interest margin for many banks has narrowed to 1.43%, with increasing pressure from inverted loan-to-deposit spreads [7]. - Regulatory challenges are also mounting, with the central bank prohibiting manual interest supplementation and other promotional deposit strategies [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, potentially leading to further declines in interest rates [8]. - High-interest deposit strategies may not be sustainable in the long term, as they increase banks' liability costs and exacerbate the narrowing of interest margins [8][9]. Group 5: Considerations for Depositors - Depositors should be cautious of liquidity risks associated with high-interest deposits, as many cannot be withdrawn early without penalties [11]. - Credit risk is a concern, especially for smaller banks with lower capital adequacy ratios, prompting recommendations to limit deposits to under 500,000 yuan to ensure insurance coverage [13]. - It is advisable for depositors to align their investment choices with their financial needs and risk tolerance, diversifying their deposits across different terms and types [15].