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中矿资源(002738):锂价下跌拖累利润 铯铷业务增长亮眼

Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue growth but a sharp decline in net profit, primarily due to falling lithium prices and increased costs in the lithium segment [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 89 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was only 8 million yuan, a decrease of 98% [1]. - For Q2 2025, operating revenue was 1.73 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%, but the net profit was a loss of 46 million yuan, worsening from a loss of 181 million yuan in the previous quarter [1]. Lithium Segment Analysis - The lithium segment saw a revenue decline of 18% in H1 2025, totaling 1.307 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.89%, down 25 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Lithium salt sales reached 17,869 tons, an increase of 6.37% year-on-year, while the average selling price of lithium carbonate dropped significantly, averaging 70,000 yuan per ton, with Q2 prices around 64,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The company incurred a loss of 40 million yuan in the lithium segment in Q2, compounded by a 40 million yuan inventory write-down due to falling prices [2]. Rare Metals Business Growth - The rare metals segment reported a revenue of 708 million yuan in H1 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 511 million yuan, also up 50% [3]. - The cesium and rubidium salt fine chemical business generated 407 million yuan in revenue, a growth of 24.93%, while the formic acid cesium rental business surged by 107.63% to 301 million yuan [3]. Copper Mining Development - The Kitumba copper mine project is progressing, with initial design completed and construction of mining and processing facilities underway, aiming for operational start in July 2026 [3]. - The company has also acquired a 98% stake in the Tsumeb project in Namibia, initiating a 200,000 tons/year multi-metal recycling project [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 639 million, 1.321 billion, and 2.279 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates due to lower lithium price assumptions [4]. - Despite the adjustments, the company maintains a "buy" rating, citing significant cost optimization and steady growth in copper and rare metals businesses [4].