天风证券：如果美联储独立性削弱 有何潜在影响？附三位主要候选人近期观点

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, with possible implications for inflation, fiscal stability, the dollar's status, and market performance [1] Group 1: Potential Impacts of a New Fed Chair - Increased risk of stagflation due to potential policy shifts [1] - Heightened fiscal concerns as a result of a politically influenced Fed [1] - Weakened dollar and capital flight if the Fed's independence is compromised [1] - Possible market turmoil leading to simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1] Group 2: Candidates for Fed Chair - Main candidates include Waller, Hassett, and Walsh, with Milan emerging as a potential dark horse due to his dovish stance and advocacy for reduced Fed independence [1] - Other candidates consist of current Fed officials like Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan, as well as financial institution representatives and former government economists [1] Group 3: Candidate Statements - Waller emphasizes the need for the Fed to focus on its work rather than presidential comments, suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut in July is reasonable [2] - Hassett acknowledges the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence while also advocating for a reassessment of interest rate paths [2] - Walsh supports the idea of a rate cut and expresses willingness to lead the Fed if called upon by the President [2]